Evidence archive
Lab
Public bets grouped by status — including deliberately killed. Source YAML in Opportunity OS; rebuild refreshes these pages.
Running
Completed
Illustration ◉ TESTINGSpout Product Feedback — reopen → submitBetSUBMITTED — access unlocked; balance-indexer bug blocked buy/borrow; report + public package still shipped.
Why nowBeta code arrived after EXP_SPOUT_001 kill (access gate). Kill reason cleared → reopen then submit.
Time redeem + explore + report + public repo + human Earn submit · Money $0 · Attention released_after_submit
Illustration ◉ TESTINGMermail skill bounty — submittedBetSUBMITTED — PR + X demo + Earn submit closed the controllable loop; review is external wait.
Why nowPrior kill was no-X; X returned (manual paste). Submit Gate opened after PR
Time build + real-screen demo + PR + human Earn submit · Money $0 · Attention released_after_submit
Illustration — ARCHIVEDHarvest friction: Landing overflow + Gumroad deposit truthBetFix three harvest blockers found in dry-run before spending more distribution attention.
Why nowEXP_CASH_001/002 were already live; a broken checkout path would falsify payment experiments for the wrong reason.
Time ~90 min dry-run + fixes · Money $0 · Attention medium
Illustration — ARCHIVEDOneForma registration → dashboard accessBetComplete access fail-fast through profile+preferences until tasks visible.
Why nowNext-round authority; parallel to Proof
Time ~90 min incl. profile OTP/handoff · Money $0 · Attention medium
Illustration ◉ TESTINGUgly closed loop: Cookie Chain cApp → Superteam submitBetSHIP one Nightly-ready Cookie Ping cApp and submit — prove closed-loop speed over polish.
Why nowFirst Opportunity Edge bet with Control>0 only while building; after submit Control collapses to waiting (external revi…
Time ~2 days scaffold → smoke → submit · Money $0 · Attention high_then_near_zero
Failed
Screenshot — ARCHIVEDDoes a second marketplace listing start to look like demand?BetA second storefront would start to look like demand.
Screenshot — ARCHIVEDA month of Lab analytics: is a crawlable /tools page being discovered?BetA crawlable /tools page with honest Store links would start showing organic discovery once the portfolio shipped.
Illustration — ARCHIVEDPublic Proof: SaaS Documentation ContradictionBetTEST public proof of a real SaaS docs contradiction to test buyer intent for $39/$199 — not generic promotion.
Why nowOnly controllable FAST path to stranger payment evidence with live SKU; IH blocked; social channels constrained.
Time ~2h incl. hunt+publish · Money $0 · Attention low
Blocked
Illustration ‖ PAUSEDOutlier zh-TW role access (granular failure)BetTEST Outlier as next MICRO_PAY after Userfeel ACCESS_BLOCKED — without auto-promoting OneForma.
Why nowTW-listed self-serve looked like lowest friction for Access Funnel evidence.
Time ~45 min · Money $0 · Attention medium
Illustration ‖ PAUSEDOneForma first timed earning: Fred Annotation CTWBetOperator authority — Fred only; stop at pre-apply qual gates.
Why nowAccess proven; next uncertainty is earning after first hits.
Time ~2 min to first block · Money $0 · Attention low
Illustration ‖ PAUSEDAccessible earning rate & task supply on Userfeel under operator constraintsBetTEST Userfeel as Phase C micro-pay field experiment for Decision→Result→Learning loop.
Why nowHighest TTF ranking in alt-paid research; needed a controllable earning experiment.
Time ~1h signup attempts · Money $0 · Attention medium
Killed
Illustration × KILLEDOne warm VALUE observation → human response (Synthesia)BetTEST #3 now per operator+coordinator; WAITING_IS_NOT_ATTENTION
Why nowIsolate care-when-seen vs public distribution noise; ≤15 min.
Time ≤15 min · Money $0 · Attention low
Illustration × KILLEDKill: Spout Product Feedback blocked on beta gateBetOPEN Spout feedback only if beta access arrives inside the attention budget; otherwise kill the path.
Why nowListing showed near-zero submissions and a cash pool — looked like a high EOV FAST bet until the access gate appeared.
Time ~45 min research + outreach drafts · Money $0 · Attention burned_then_released